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Renault sees diesel exclusive disappearing from most of its European cars.
PARIS Renault expects diesels to disappear from most of its European cars, company sources told Reuters, after the French automaker has examined the costs of compliance with more stringent emission standards after the Volkswagen scandal .
The sober reassessment was presented at an internal meeting before the summer break, it shows how, a year after VW accepted engineering software to cheat US diesel emissions testing, the impact force the major European car manufacturers to rewrite the strategic plans that will shape their future for years to come.
Domestic rival Renault and Peugeot, both heavily invested in diesel technology, first rushed to defend its future viability after VW crisis erupted.
But at the July meeting, chief officer of the competitiveness of Renault Thierry Bolloré said diesel investment prospects had dimmed considerably, according to two people who were present.
He said we were wondering now if diesel survive, and he wouldn t have expressed these doubts even at the beginning of this year, said one of the people.
highest standards and the test methods will increase the technological costs to the point where diesel is forced out of the market, the source summarizes Bollore as saying.
Diesel engines, more expensive but more efficient than gasoline, had already disappeared smaller vehicles such as Twingo A -segment before VW supposedly dieselgate Renault, as their additional costs exceeded fuel savings.
By 2020, Renault now expects the tightening of Euro emission rules 6 push diesel cars in the size category B -segment, including its Clio in compact and some C models like the Megane sedan, the sources .
Models of these first three size categories accounted for more than 1 6 million European deliveries of the group last year, and over 60 percent were diesel engines.
Everyone is on diesel, because reverse after 2017-18, it becomes more and more expensive, said Pavan Potluri, a powertrain analyst with consulting firm IHS Automotive.
While the VW scandal centered on German automaker cheat software, it also drew public attention to a disparity between total industry emissions of nitrogen oxide NOx on the road and those registered in regulatory testing.
diesels mass market that meet the legal limits of NOx in the approval tests often emit as much or more five times daily gases contribute to acid rain and respiratory diseases blamed for hundreds of thousands of deaths world each year.
From 2019, however, the approval of vehicles will be based on emissions performance during the actual conduct It requires manufacturers to install more costly emission treatment systems.
The business case for diesel could deteriorate further, industry leaders to build as targets become more stringent, while the battery and hybrid electric car get cheaper and more powerful.
Beyond 2025 there may be some manufacturers that drop completely diesel, because the cost of electrification has decreased significantly, said Potluri.
Sales of diesel cars will drop to 9 percent of the European market in 2030 to 52 percent today, management consultant AlixPartners - considered an authority on the automotive industry - expected in June, with the accelerated decline after 2020.
Renault and its partner Nissan alliance 7201 T assume the next wave of emission rules, Euro 7 could halve NOx output limits again at 40 milligrams per kilometer, Senior Engineer Powertrain Alain Raposo during a technical conference this summer.
Renault is not alone in predicting a bleak future for diesel, although its projections go beyond the doubts expressed by other automakers on technology.
VW now wonders whether it still makes sense to invest a lot of money in the further development diesel, Matthias Mueller CEO said in June The German automaker final bill for the scandal will probably far exceed the 15 billion settlement okay so far fines in the US and buy back the vehicle.
VW Wolfsburg is the only automaker to have admitted to using illegal software cheats Similar allegations were made by German officials against Fiat Chrysler and the South Korean authorities against Nissan vehicles equipped with Renault engines - and in both cases denied .
Renault, however, was forced to admit that its actual NOx emissions are much worse than the industry average, and the automaker remains under investigation by the fraud authorities in French consumption.
This has exacerbated the headache Renault engineering and tarnished the green image he cultivated with electric car launches and lower emissions than the average CO2 of carbon dioxide, the dominant focus of regulators before dieselgate.
In road tests on nearly 100 vehicles, commanded by a French commission on diesel emissions, Renault and Nissan cars produced more than eight times the limit regulatory NOx on average, with most of their Euro 6 models nearly 10 times the limit.
Head of Renault engineering Abellan Gaspar Gascon told the commission that the recirculation of EGR exhaust gas NOx cut in its top-selling diesel engines had been the source of serious turbo clogging problems.
The engineers responded by programming the EGR close outside a narrow range of air inlet temperatures 17-35 degrees Celsius 63-95 degrees Fahrenheit Passing regulatory tests applied near room temperature, the protocol sends staggering NOx emissions on the road.
Renault, Opel GM N, Fiat and others said that such defeat devices are legal because they are designed to protect their engines rather than cheat tests, but the French commission said their technical justifications remained to prove .
Gascon Abellan agreed at the hearings that the Renault EGR restrictions could be considered conservative and would now be eased by some software adjustments to existing models without changing important drivers I recognize that we could have done earlier, he said.
In common with Ford F N, VW and Mercedes, Renault is struggling to catch up with Peugeot deploying selective catalytic reduction costly SCR systems to control NOx emissions in real-world driving.
Bollore, the head of the competitiveness, blamed diesel consequences partly to 115 million 128 million research and development that weakened overspend the benefit of the first half.
electric car program Renault and CO2 performance remain important assets in a world of tightening the laws on emissions, Exane BNP Paribas analyst Stuart Pearson said.
But they'll have to address the issue of diesel and add more content SCR others, Pearson said it could be a reason why Renault's results could be handicapped compared to Peugeot in the coming years.
Additional reporting by Edward Taylor in Frankfurt; Editing by Pravin Char.
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